Mizani Africa, a leading polling firm, has released fresh statistics indicating that the race has tightened significantly, with the gap between the top two contenders shrinking to within the standard margin of error.
Leonard Wa Muthende, who has maintained a steady lead throughout the intense campaign period, is currently polling at 44.6 per cent, a figure that keeps him narrowly at the top despite a slight dip from his peak earlier this month.
Newton Karish is the candidate responsible for the sudden "November twist," having staged a massive comeback by jumping from 28.9 per cent in early November to a formidable 42.4 per cent in the latest findings.
The survey reveals that this unexpected surge of over 14 percentage points has effectively reset the competition, turning what appeared to be a straightforward victory for his opponent into a statistical tie.
The data highlights that while Mr Karish initially saw his support drop in October, his campaign has managed to regain significant momentum, consolidating his stronghold just as the race enters the final stretch.
Duncan Mbui, conversely, has seen his political fortunes dwindle drastically, crashing from a strong 20 per cent support base in September to a mere 5.7 per cent in the final week of campaigning.
The electorate appears to have firmly made up its mind, as the report indicates that the number of undecided voters has plummeted from 21.5 per cent to a negligible 7.3 per cent.
The constituency is now witnessing a high-stakes "two-horse race," where voter turnout and last-minute mobilization efforts will likely determine who eventually captures the parliamentary seat in Embu County.
Mizani Africa concludes that with the margins so razor-thin, the final outcome remains too close to call, making this one of the most competitive by-elections in recent months.
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